Interview with Dr. Monique Lyle
December 5, 2010 No CommentsInterview conducted by
Allegra Noonan and
Matthew Taylor
Interview transcribed by
Grace Aviles
VPR: What do the results of the 2010 midterm elections say about the electorate? Have we seen a permanent shift to a more conservative electorate or was the vote simply against Obama’s agenda?
ML: Well, I don’t think that the midterm results suggest a permanent shift towards a more conservative electorate. In terms of President Obama’s agenda, I personally have some serious questions about the extent to which the American electorate is either significantly aware or informed of what the President’s agenda is. I believe that there were a few factors that contributed to the results. For one, historically, the president’s party typically loses seats in the Congress during the midterm. For two term presidents the greatest loss occurs during the first midterm. Based on history the fact that the Democrats lost seats was not atypical. However, they did lose a great number of seats, more than we’ve seen in a very long time. Also, in addition to the fact that the president’s party loses seats during the midterms, there are other factors to consider. For example, groups that typically comprise the Democratic Party’s base were not very mobilized for the midterm elections. Young people were not as mobilized as they were in 2008, for example. African Americans were not as mobilized as they were in 2008. Not to mention, turnout is just lower during midterm elections anyway. The Democratic Party base was not as mobilized by the party, whereas people who comprised the Republican base were highly mobilized this particular election season in part due to the Tea Party movement. However, I think that the most important factor in the outcome of this election was people’s evaluations and perceptions of the economy. Economic evaluations are strongly associated with vote choice and people evaluate the economy negatively right now. More Americans feel that the economic situation is getting worse than getting better, and voters tend to punish the party in power when the economy is faring poorly. Further, economic issues tend to comprise the bulk of campaign communication, and Republicans, historically, have appeared more adept at using economic messages to their advantage.
VPR: I wanted to bring up something you said at the beginning of that. You said that the American public isn’t informed on Obama’s policies. Do you think its disinformation, like, due to what the Tea Party said about death panels and all that or do you just think its that they don’t know?
ML: A little bit of both but primarily the latter. There certainly is a lot of confusing information out there right now, however, Americans generally are not particularly informed about government and politics. That doesn’t mean that Americans don’t have real attitudes, that doesn’t mean that Americans don’t have a sense of what’s important to them, but Americans aren’t always particularly knowledgeable about public affairs. So I don’t think it’s entirely just misinformation, I think that Americans just aren’t as knowledgeable or engaged in politics as some would expect.
VPR: Do you think that the results of the 2010 midterm elections change any possible outcomes of the 2012 elections. Do you think that Obama’s reelection prospects will be helped, harmed, or not affected by the Republican victories.
ML: I should preface my statements by saying that, despite having a Ph.D. in political science, I am by no means a political prognosticator. I am not one to make sweeping predictions about the future. But, with that said, I will say that I don’t think that the 2010 midterm elections portend any permanent changes, like the electorate moving in a more conservative direction, nor do I think they definitively suggest President Obama not being reelected in 2012. Part of the reason I feel this way with regard to Obama’s reelection prospects is that midterm elections are, historically, poor predictors of presidential elections, so I don’t think we can definitely say that what happened in 2010 tells us anything definitive about 2012. However, some of what you’ve been hearing is that this portends doom for him. Even though I don’t want to make a prediction about the future, I don’t think that this portends doom for him as some would suggest. It actually could work to his advantage in some ways. For example, with Republicans capturing a majority of the seats in the House, if they end up being as unwilling to compromise as some of them have suggested they will be, then it could contribute to a situation of gridlock and he might be able to effectively leverage this and blame Republicans for this stagnation. Also, if the economy improves it could work to his advantage. So I guess the long and short of it is no, I don’t think the midterms say anything definitive about Obama’s reelection prospects.
VPR: Interesting, quickly, when you say that the midterm elections are a poor indicator of 2012 elections, is it because of the low voter turnout and other factors?
ML: I mean, that’s part of it. Parties work harder at mobilizing voters in presidential elections than in midterm elections. Also, things just happen. As I mentioned before, economic considerations are more associated with Americans’ voting decisions than social considerations, and some research suggests that, when it comes to economic considerations, people tend to only look back at the previous year, not the last two, three, four years. So what happens in 2012 is likely to matter more than these midterm elections.
VPR: The Tea Party managed to elect 5 Senators, 30 House Representatives, and numerous officials on the state and local levels. Do you think that the Tea Party will be a lasting force on the American political landscape? Do you think the Tea Party will be more willing to compromise with Democrats and Moderate Republicans as time goes on? Do you think they will become more pragmatic or remain ideological?
ML: At the moment, I don’t have any reason to believe that newly elected officials associated with the Tea Party will be any more willing to compromise in the future than they have already suggested. However, the essence of politics is compromise. If they are unwilling to compromise on anything, then they are not likely to get much accomplished and are not likely to be a lasting force in the American political landscape. If they would like to remain a powerful force in American politics, then they are going to have to compromise on some issues. But, right now, whether they will become more willing to compromise is unclear. I have no reason to believe that they will, but it remains to be seen.
VPR: So many states that went blue during 2008, such as North Carolina and Virginia, swung back this past election. Will these states become permanent swing states or do you think that the 2008 presidential elections were an exception?
ML: This past week we have heard a lot of talk about Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana, but the extent to which they’ve “gone red” or will go red in 2012 seems somewhat dubious. In North Carolina, for example, only one representative lost his seat to a Republican, and that’s it. Republican incumbents held on, but I’m not sure that you can call that a massive shift or say that it signals something about future presidential elections. In Virginia and Indiana, 2 or 3 House seats went from Democrat to Republican, and Republicans did pick up a Senate seat in Indiana. These are meaningful changes, but it still doesn’t necessarily mean that these states will be red in 2012, though it won’t be incredibly surprising if they are.
VPR: So, you don’t think this is the end of the southern Conservative Democrat?
ML: Not necessarily. The Blue Dogs got hit hard in this election; their caucus got cut by more than half. The Progressive Caucus tends to be from more left leaning districts, while the Blue Dogs are not. Blue Dogs tend to be from districts that are more centrist ideologically. When you have a situation where people are not highly ideological, given the economic situation, those people are more likely to switch than those who are ideological. I can’t say I was anticipating the Blue Dogs losing as many seats as they did, but in hindsight it might not be incredibly surprising. If the economy recovers, however, perhaps conservative Democrats could do better. Also, given that the Blue Dogs lost so many seats and so you have fewer centrist Democrats now in the House, Congress could appear or actually become more polarized than it currently is, which could contribute to more gridlock and fewer things getting accomplished. This could work to conservative Democrats’ advantage in 2012. They could run as uniters or ideological moderates who are more capable of reaching across the aisle, so we could see a resurgence of conservative Democrats in 2012.
VPR: Do you think there is a chance of third parties become more viable in 2012 as a result of the increasingly polarization of the parties?
ML: It’s hard to say. Some certainly believe that there is an emerging moderate or centrist revolution that’s coming, so we might see the emergence of a successful centrist third party. Right now, honestly, I’m not sure. It’s definitely possible, and there are political scientists who believe the emergence of a kind of militant middle is imminent, but that remains to be seen.
VPR: What do you think about the Republican pledge to overturn Obama’s healthcare legislation?
ML: Will they succeed in overturning it? Absolutely not. I don’t think that will happen. They could conceivably slow down its implementation by using the subpoena power to bring various bureaucrats charged with implementing it before Congress for hearings and such. So they could slow down its implementation. But I don’t think they will be successful at overturning it. I can’t say that I think that they won’t make an effort. Even if Republicans in Congress realize that the prospect of overturning this is dim, they still might make a real effort because it sends a message to their constituents. At the very least they will try to hinder it or its implementation, I just don’t think they will be able to repeal the whole thing.
VPR: Final comments?
ML: The only final comment that I’ll make is that we should be careful about the extent to which we think that the 2010 midterm election results portend future events.
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