Midterm 2010: Reading Between The Lines and Redrawing Them

Lindsey Bohl
Class of 2011
College of Arts and Science

Losses by the incumbent party during a Midterm Election are often predictable. Given the relative unpopularity of President Obama, unemployment rates at almost ten percent, and an overextended Democratic Party, especially in the House, the results on November 2nd were foreseeable. At a national level, things are looking stark for Democrats, with the largest party turnover since 1948. But was it not just two years ago that TIME Magazine deemed Republicans an “Endangered Species”? We have heard a lot of talk about what 2010 means for 2012, but what about 2014, 2016, 2018, and even 2020? As if Democrats did not already have enough to worry about after disappointing midterm losses, they must also begin to consider another important implication of the results—the makeup of state legislatures and its impact during a census year like this one.
The governors and state legislatures elected in this cycle will have the coveted privilege of drawing the electoral map for the next ten years starting in 2011 – a practice commonly referred to as gerrymandering. After November 2, 2010, there are more Republicans in state legislatures than any point since 1928. At least eleven states, including Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Maine, and Alabama, have switched party control from Democrats to Republicans. This is the first time Republicans have controlled the Alabama state legislature since Reconstruction, and for the first time in history, the GOP controls the Minnesota Senate.
Although rules vary across states, most states have their legislatures and governors approve an updated map of legislative districts to meet the “one person, one vote” constitutional standard. This means that the resounding Republican victory in 2010 could cost Democrats congressional seats for the decade to come. According to political strategist Karl Rove, as many as ten states will have to combine districts as they lose house seats, and eight states are expected to gain at least one seat each. Many of the gains are expected to come in faster growing Sunbelt states like New Mexico, whereas losses are expected in shrinking Rustbelt states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Regardless of whether or not a state wins or loses seats, lines may be redrawn. Chris Bell, the Texas Democrat who lost his seat after the infamous mid-decade redistricting that took place in 2003, will not soon forget the dangers of being part of the out-party during a redistricting year. At the time, former House Majority Leader Tom Delay helped Republicans gain several new seats through a highly controversial redistricting process, which increased the number of Republicans in the Texas delegation from sixteen to twenty-one. The effects of this redistricting are still being felt by Texas Democrats. Chet Edwards, a twenty-year house incumbent lost to Republican challenger Bill Flores in 2010, after being cast into a significantly less favorable district starting in 2005.
As one CNN spokesperson reported, a big loss for Democrats in 2010 is like “acing all your practice exams, and then failing on the SAT.” In spite of the many legislative accomplishments made by Democrats after 2006 and 2008, the significance of those years for the future political landscape may be eclipsed by 2010. We can likely expect a net loss of safe Democratic districts in years to come. The red is about to get redder, and the blue may turn purple.
However, there is a glimmer of hope for Democrats. With Republicans holding a majority of seats, particularly in traditionally non-Republican areas, new GOP house districts can only be created by redistricting Republican supporters out of the existing Republican districts. No politician who cares about his own career will vote for a plan that dilutes his or her own district of supporters. Intra-party battles could prevent the redistricting process from being as brutal as one might expect. Additionally, in states like Tennessee where the GOP has now claimed seven of nine congressional districts, with the remaining Democratic strongholds in metropolitan Nashville and Memphis, it is difficult to imagine Republicans creating a more favorable landscape than currently exists. Regardless of how things “shape” out for Democrats after the redistricting process is over, with GOP seats now exceeding 235 in the House, Republicans sitting in traditionally purple or “light blue” seats are left somewhat vulnerable in at least the next cycle.

References:
National Conference of State Legislatures. 2010. Republicans Make Historic Gains. 3
November 2010 . http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx
The New York Times. 2005. Redistricting Tom Delay. 14 December 2005.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/14/opinion/14wed2.html