The Rise of Herman Cain

Megan Covington
School of Engineering
Class of 2014

For the past few weeks, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry have been at the top of the presidential candidate watch list, commanding the largest part of the media attention and 2012 election discussion.  With Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, and Christie out of the running in most minds, the stage was set for a Romney versus Perry showdown for the nomination. That is, until Herman Cain pulled a Kanye West and interrupted everything.

Even though Herman Cain addressed the Conservative Political Action Committee in February and was present at the Ames Straw Poll in August, the former CEO of a pizza company was still relatively obscure to most people until about two weeks ago.  The upset victory he won at Presidency 5 was the beginning of a surge in appearances and in votes for Cain, whose name recognition and share of media attention has skyrocketed.

But does Herman Cain have a chance at winning the nomination? Or for that matter, could he feasibly win the presidency? Latest polls show Cain tying Romney for first, with Rick Perry’s support numbers dropping.  Cain’s numbers have risen to take second place in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, surpassing Perry’s support in both key primary states.  Sarah Palin might have dismissed him as “flavor of the week,” but Mitt Romney spoke highly of Cain, as have other prominent Republicans.  His performances at debates and on television have secured him a loyal band of followers and a largely favorable opinion among attentive conservatives.  The businessman certainly seems to be selling himself and his opinions well so far.

As for his presidential chances, however, Cain has a ways to go.  He is certainly confident about his chances of winning, predicting earning a third of African American votes and performing well in a debate against President Obama.  He also seems fairly certain Rick Perry poses little threat to his potential campaign, concentrating on knocking out frontrunner Mitt Romney.  His confidence, however, isn’t enough to earn him the required national appeal.  Besides the 9-9-9 plan he touts as the solution to all of America’s tax woes, Cain’s harsh comments against the Occupy Wall Street Movement, his claim that Blacks were “brain-washed” into voting Democrat, and his lack of experience are just a few of the obstacles he will have to overcome in the next year if he does secure the nomination.  Intrade gives his election chances at a mere 3.1 percent.

His sudden jump in popularity and support is impressive, but I remain skeptical of his ability to win outside of the Republican Party.  He’s certainly not as electable as Romney, but the fact that so many conservatives in the past few weeks have decided to support him – the same conservatives who had about a dozen potential candidates and were mostly unsatisfied with all of them – may prove significant as primary season quickly approaches. With a few months to go until the primaries, Cain’s numbers could rise as they have recently or fall as sharply as Michelle Bachmann’s. Still, I can’t really see Black Walnut being on the menu next November.

View article: Herman Cain’s Poll Surge: Is it Real?
Photo courtesy: David Goldman, Associated Press