While the 2024 Republican primary campaign is in full swing and receiving significant media attention, the Democratic primary has gone mostly under the radar. While this would be par for the course in most primaries since a sitting president is running, it is notable for a candidate facing both drastically low approval ratings as an incumbent and heavy skepticism from his own party; recent polling has shown that about two-thirds of Democratic voters favor someone other than Joe Biden being the 2024 Democratic nominee. Despite this hesitancy from many, however, Biden appears to be in no serious danger at the moment, as his polling numbers sit close to sixty points higher than his closest competitors. While sitting presidents have faced serious primary challenges in the past, perhaps most notably Ronald Reagan running just behind Gerald Ford in 1976, as of yet no candidate has emerged to play this role.
Beyond the inherent challenges in primarying a sitting president, Biden’s would-be competitors suffer from a combination of a lack of name recognition and a lack of enthusiasm. The two candidates currently polling behind him are 2016 Democratic candidate and media personality Marianne Williamson and Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, currently sitting at 8.4% and 5.8% respectively in FiveThirtyEight’s polls. Williamson, who before her 2016 candidacy was perhaps best known for being a spiritual advisor to and frequent guest of Oprah Winfrey, is known as a progressive candidate who endorsed Bernie Sanders over Joe Biden in 2020. Phillips, meanwhile, is a former businessman who was elected to the House in 2019 and a moderate who downplays any disagreements or differences in outlook with Biden. As a candidate Williamson has received some ridicule stemming from past comments she made regarding vaccine mandates and her emphasis on spiritual language. Phillips, meanwhile, has faced an uphill battle in his fight for significant recognition and enthusiasm nationwide, perhaps unsurprising for a somewhat junior representative.
Beyond those two, the options for a Biden challenger are slim. Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who had previously been the most well-known and popular Democratic candidate, has since announced his campaign as an independent. The other name that often appears alongside Williamson and Phillips is Cenk Uygur, founder and face of the popular and influential online news show The Young Turks. Uygur, however, faces unique challenges stemming not only from his past controversial comments on several groups but also his eligibility. Born in Turkey and thus not a natural-born U.S citizen, Uygur claims that his case for ballot access would be approved by the Supreme Court, though as of now only Arkansas has granted this access.
A small survey of Democratic-leaning Vanderbilt students seems to reflect this dilemma. 75% of respondents reported wishing for the Democratic party to nominate someone other than Joe Biden, though when asked specifically who they would vote for, Biden received the most votes, beating out Phillips and “none of them.” Furthermore, less than half of respondents reported being familiar with Phillips as a candidate, while Williamson was more recognized but much less popular. While many continue to dread a Biden-Trump rematch and Democratic voters yearn for someone else, the lack of viable options seems to have made the nomination race all but a formality. It remains to be seen how this seeming contradiction between popularity and support will impact the general election next year, but Biden’s lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters will continue to be a storyline throughout the campaign.
Photo by GPA Photo Archive on Flickr
