Vice President Harris recently announced Governor Tim Walz, a native Nebraskan, as her running mate. Meanwhile, Donald Trump opened a new office in Omaha. Nebraska’s second congressional district (NE-02), a strip of land based primarily in Omaha, could be the decider of the 2024 presidential election.
Harris’s most likely path to victory is through the rust belt. She would have to win the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Combined, they provide 48 electoral votes, which narrowly gives Harris the victory with 270 electoral votes total—the exact number needed to win. However, one electoral vote, out of the 270, is from NE-02.
NE-02 is a crucial battleground district due to the state’s unique electoral vote allocation system. 48 of the 50 states in the U.S. have a winner-take-all system. Such a system awards all electoral votes to the statewide winner. Maine and Nebraska are two exceptions. These two states split their electoral votes by congressional district and award two additional votes to the statewide winner.
While the rest of Nebraska leans heavily Republican, NE-02 is quite competitive due to the urban and politically diverse nature of Omaha. In recent years, the district has swung to both parties in presidential elections. In 2008, Barack Obama won the district by a narrow margin. This was the first election in history in which Nebraska split its electoral votes. However, Mitt Romney was able to win the district back by a comfortable margin in 2012. Trump kept the district red during the 2016 election, but Joe Biden was able to flip the district once again, in favor of the Democrats, in 2020.
With a close election up ahead, NE-02 could prove to be the tipping point for the election. Threatened by a Harris victory, Republicans in Nebraska’s state legislature have rushed to convert the state into a winner-take-all system.
Trump along with Charlie Kirk and MAGA loyalists in the state legislature have been pushing since April 2024, to pass a bill that would change Nebraska’s electoral system. To pass the bill, Republicans would need 33 votes, a filibuster-proof majority. There are currently exactly 33 Republicans in the unicameral legislature, but they’re falling one vote short.
The bill is consistently failing, since Republican senator Mike McDonnell does not support its passage. Under constant pressure from Trump supporters, Governor Jim Pillen has been desperately calling for legislative sessions to pass the bill while Senator John Lowe, proposer of the bill, has been squirming to muster up the missing vote.
While it seems unlikely, passage of this bill could completely change the trajectory of the 2024 presidential election.
Not only is this district a detrimental factor for the ultimate winner of the election, it is also a representation of the shifting political dynamics of the United States. Omaha paints a picture of the new national demographic. As urban voters lean Democratic, suburban voters shift to the center and the spotlight.
