On Oct. 28, two ballot boxes were set on fire, endangering and destroying hundreds of ballots. These ballot boxes were in Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington. Vancouver is the largest city in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, a contentious race that could decide control of the House of Representatives.
In 2022, while winning the House, Republicans faced a major upset when now-Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat, narrowly won Washington’s 3rd District by 0.8%—an area that Donald Trump carried in 2020 by 4.2%. In 2024, this is one of the most vulnerable districts Republicans are targeting. Perez faces a rematch against Republican challenger Joe Kent. Vancouver was key to her victory, supplying the largest sum of Democratic ballots in the district. Now she faces an uphill battle as many of those ballots were destroyed in the fire.
Perez appealed to her constituents by appearing as a moderate Democrat who would work for the people over the party. She kept true to her promise by co-leading the Blue Dog Democrats coalition and becoming the second-least frequently voting Democrat with Joe Biden in 2023, having voted with him only 53.7% of the time. On average, Democratic representatives voted with Biden 93% of the time. Her co-leaders of the Blue Dog coalition, Jared Golden and Mary Peltola, are also in a similar position. Both are from congressional districts that voted for Trump—Maine’s 2nd District and Alaska’s at-large district, respectively. Both members have also deviated from voting with Biden. Golden voted with Biden only 33.9% of the time, and Peltola voted with him 80.4% of the time.
At its peak, the coalition consisted of 56 members in 2006 but is now reduced to just 10 members. With an already low number of members, all three co-leaders are among the most endangered Democrats in 2024. Along with those three, Rep. Vincente Gonzalez of Texas’s 34th Congressional District also faces a tough challenge against former Rep. Mayra Flores.
Even though they face attacks from Republicans and backlash from liberal and progressive circles for not fully backing their party, the Blue Dogs are looking to expand in this election cycle. They have endorsed 10 candidates running for seats across the map, aiming to grow their bipartisan coalition. Their endorsements could result in a Democratic House with a slim majority, putting significant power in their hands. But with the coalition already dwindling, 2024 could mark the end of the Blue Dog Democrats if they fail to win these key races. Democrats may face challenges from Blue Dogs on crucial party-wide votes, like those on gun reform, but these new members along with existing ones could bring about a Congress with more members willing to work across the aisle.
